Setting the Stage for 2026

Regional Context: The South in Flux

With most Southern legislatures adjourned for the year, attention has shifted to the political maneuvers and structural changes happening between sessions. Special sessions, such as the special redistricting sessions in Texas, are underway. Court orders, like the 5th Circuit’s ruling that Louisiana’s legislative maps likely violate the Voting Rights Act, are reshaping how representation may look going into 2026. At the same time, new federal directives, such as a proposed off-cycle census adjustment, are redefining foundational political dynamics.

Texas Redistricting Standoff

Texas has become ground zero in the debate over mid-decade redistricting. In early August, Democratic legislators left the state to deny a quorum and block a proposed congressional map that analysts say could create up to five additional GOP-leaning seats. Their absence triggered a high-profile standoff, with state leaders threatening arrests, fines, and pay cuts.

On August 18, Democrats returned, restoring quorum and allowing Republicans to resume business. The walkout’s return was not without friction. Lawmakers were told they must sign “escort agreements” agreeing to be accompanied by Department of Public Safety officers; Rep. Nicole Collier refused and staged an overnight protest in the chamber.

Despite the protest, Republicans successfully passed new congressional maps for the state. The revised maps shift district boundaries in ways that strengthen partisan advantage while dispersing the influence of growing Black and Latino communities in urban and suburban area and are already facing challenges from voting rights advocates. Beyond Texas, the episode raises the possibility that other Southern legislatures could attempt similar mid-cycle redraws, especially in states with rapid demographic shifts or narrow partisan margins.

Federal Census Directive and Southern Implications

Adding to the uncertainty, the Trump administration has directed the Commerce Department to conduct a new, off-schedule census that excludes undocumented immigrants and incorporates 2024 election data.

Legal experts widely expect constitutional challenges, since the Constitution requires that every person living in the United States be counted. For Southern states, where immigrant populations are both growing and regionally concentrated, excluding entire communities from the count could have far-reaching consequences. Congressional apportionment, legislative redistricting, and the allocation of billions of dollars in federal funding all depend on population data. States like Texas, Florida, and Georgia could see measurable shifts in both representation and resources.

This directive also connects directly to the redistricting debates already underway in the South as population counts provide the foundation for drawing district lines. In turn, altering who is counted has the potential to reshape political power.

Separately, federal involvement extended into state-level political conflicts when reports surfaced that the FBI agreed to assist Texas officials in locating absent Democratic legislators during the redistricting walkout. Federal reach has also been tested through President Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops in Washington, D.C., and his threatened use in other Democratic-led cities. These developments underscore how federal agencies are becoming entangled in state-level disputes, further blurring the lines between state and national political arenas.

Looking Ahead: 2026 Legislative Projections and Watchpoints

Taken together, the summer’s developments offer a preview of what may be on the horizon as Southern legislatures prepare for 2026. Several dynamics may define the months ahead and set the stage for critical elections and policy debates.

Redistricting Battles. Redistricting battles are likely to remain a defining feature of 2026. The mid-cycle fight in Texas has opened the door for other Southern states to consider similar moves through new partisan redraws or in defending existing maps in ongoing litigation. Pending rulings on redistricting challenges in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and other states could significantly alter political maps before the 2026 election cycle. The 5th Circuit’s recent decision on Louisiana’s legislative maps illustrates how federal courts are shaping representation in real time.

Voting Access in Flux. Efforts to shape who participates in elections are expected to intensify, both at the state and federal levels. President Trump recently announced plans to eliminate mail-in ballots and electronic voting ahead of 2026, though legal experts assert that such changes may exceed his executive authority. Some state legislatures may pursue additional restrictions, such as stricter ID requirements or new limits on mail voting. Courageous leaders across the South continue to advance legislation aimed at expanding access—like same-day registration and extended early voting—and we expect such proposals will remain a vital counterbalance to restrictive voting efforts.

Policy Pushes and Rollbacks. Beyond election rules, Southern legislatures are poised for renewed debate on core issues like healthcare access, public education funding, and economic opportunity. In some states, there is momentum toward equity-focused reforms — such as expanding Medicaid or increasing teacher pay. In others, policymakers are signaling an emphasis on cost-cutting or rolling back existing programs.

Legislative Prefiling. Some states will begin prefiling bills this fall, providing an early window into likely 2026 priorities. Bills related to voting access, redistricting adjustments, and core issues like healthcare and education will be especially telling.

Why This Matters

The developments of this summer highlight that policymaking doesn’t pause when legislatures adjourn. Decisions about redistricting, who is counted in the census, and how elections are administered all shape whose voices are heard and how resources are distributed. For communities across the South, these choices have tangible effects on schools, healthcare, infrastructure, and economic opportunity.

As we look toward 2026, the stakes are clear: representation and access are being renegotiated in real time. A strong democracy requires representation that reflects and aligns with the values and lived priorities of communities, not just partisan interests. Our upcoming Status of the States report in October will take a deeper look at how Southern legislatures’ actions align with the values and priorities of the people who live here.